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Zhitong Financial APP learned thatPaigowrulesIn the first quarter of 2024, aluminum prices stopped falling and rebounded, showing a "V" reversal. The quarterly price range was 18650-19540 yuan / ton, and the average price was higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2023. According to Zhuochuang information data, in the second quarter, the domestic spot aluminum price once rose to 20750 yuan / ton, brushing the new high for more than a year, and the futures Shanghai aluminum main contract climbed as high as 21345 yuan / ton.
Since March, despite the seasonal accumulation stage, aluminum prices are still rising unilaterally, with the main contract for Shanghai Aluminum climbing to 21345 yuan / ton in mid-April, a new high since 2023 and up about 13% from the beginning of March.
On the supply side, on April 13, the United States and Britain announced new trading restrictions on Russian-made aluminum, copper and nickel. Under the new rules, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) are not allowed to use aluminum, copper and nickel produced by Russia on or after April 13, and the two countries also ban imports of these three metals.
Russia is the world's second-largest aluminum producer after China, with a production capacity of 4.5 million tons and an annual output of about 3.8 million tons, accounting for 5% of the world's total. The new sanctions could strain global supplies of these metals and push up prices.
For basic metals such as aluminium, the continued tight supply side is the most key factor driving this round of rising commodity prices. As the new capacity is close to the bottleneck, as long as the demand side is not too bad, commodity prices will be easy to rise and difficult to fall. From the perspective of rhythm, the return of May Day holiday focuses on the removal of the social treasury, and the terminal has the motivation to replenish the stock again after the previous inventory has been digested.
Jianxin Futures Research News pointed out that generally speaking, the supply side has entered a flood season in the second quarter, Yunnan is expected to resume production, and the Huayun Phase III project in Inner Mongolia will also be officially put into production in mid-May, and the follow-up marginal growth of electrolytic aluminum supply is relatively certain. but the market is not fully traded for the time being, and we need to be vigilant.
On the demand side, many sectors performed better than expected in the first quarter, all due to the relatively bearish areas of photovoltaic and new energy vehicles in the market, but the traditional peak season of "gold, silver and silver four" has ended, and the replenishment cycle between China and the United States has yet to come. the increase in demand is limited in the short term. Operationally, it is recommended to do more for every callback, and the support level should pay attention to 19000 yuan / ton.
Societe Generale Securities pointed out that fundamentally, the supply side of Yunnan continues to promote the resumption of production, the demand side is affected by pre-festival stock, inventory has been eliminated. On the macro level, U. S. economic data are mixed, and the price of Lunalco has fallen during the holiday. Overall, the peak season downstream demand gradually recover, superimposed macro-policy is good, aluminum prices are expected to maintain high, individual stocks suggest to pay attention to Chinalco, Yun Aluminum shares, Shenhuo shares and so on.
Related concept stockPaigowrules:
China Hongqiao (01378): in mid-April, Debang Securities released a research report that maintained China Hongqiao's "buy" rating and expected to achieve a net profit of 117,129,13 billion yuan in 24-26 years. The company released its annual report for 2023. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total operating income of 133.6 billion yuan, an increase of about 1% over the same period last year.Paigowrules.5%; realized net profit of 11.5 billion yuan, an increase of about 31% over the same period last yearPaigowrules.7%. China Hongqiao's current cost side will be accompanied by a decline in coal prices, while 23 years of excellent performance and higher dividend yield.
Aluminum of China (02600): in early April, Citigroup released a research report saying that it maintained Chinalco's "buy" rating and adjusted the 2024 Universe 25 earnings survey by + 53% and-5% to 9 billion and 11.3 billion yuan, reflecting rising aluminum production and higher alumina price forecasts. at the same time, the aluminum price forecast for 2025 was lowered. The profit is expected to be 13.8 billion yuan in 2026, with the target price raised to HK $7.88. The bank believes that due to the high demand for aluminum for solar installations and new energy vehicles, and the continuing tight demand, the price of aluminum will remain high in the mainland for some time, driving the profit margins of the aluminum industry.
Xingfa Aluminum (00098): recently announced its results for the year ended December 31, 2023, the group achieved a turnover of 17.353 billion yuan (the same as the unit below), an increase of 2.48% over the same period last year; profit attributable to equity shareholders of the company was 804 million yuan, an increase of 75.67% over the same period last year; earnings per share are 1.91 yuan, and a final dividend of HK $0.64 per share is proposed. The increase in turnover was mainly due to an increase in sales orders during the year, the announcement said. In the current year, sales of construction aluminum profiles increased by 9.2% to about 622700 tons (2022: 570000 tons). At the same time, sales of industrial aluminum profiles fell 5.1 per cent to about 126200 tons (2022: 133000 tons) this year.
